Ukraine’s Refusal to Pause the Guns Casts a Long Shadow Over Global Diplomacy

By Bayethe Msimang

As Europe prepares to mark eight decades since the fall of fascism, a symbolic olive branch extended by President Vladimir Putin a proposed three-day ceasefire ahead of Russia’s Victory Day has been swatted away by Kyiv with unmistakable finality. The gesture, intended as a moment of silence for the fallen, instead sparked a storm of geopolitical noise.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s flat rejection of the truce not only lays bare the deepening fault lines between Ukraine and Russia, but also leaves global observers wondering whether Kyiv, once the darling of the diplomatic stage, is now writing its foreign policy in the language of ultimatums.

Zelenskyy’s position is unyielding: peace will come only on Ukraine’s terms that many analysts regard as castles in the air given the current military stalemate. In a season that called for statesmanship, Ukraine doubled down on standoffishness. What was once the voice of a besieged democracy has begun to sound, to some, like the echo of inflexibility.

Perhaps more jarring was Zelenskyy’s warning that he could not guarantee the safety of dignitaries attending the May 9 parade in Moscow. Diplomats read between the lines and heard more than a security advisory, they heard a shot across the bow.

For South Africa, which has confirmed the attendance of Defence Minister Angie Motshekga, this puts Pretoria in a diplomatic bind, tiptoeing a tightrope between BRICS solidarity and its cautious courtship of Ukraine.

This isn’t Kyiv’s first diplomatic curveball. In mid-2024, Zelenskyy publicly scolded Poland for declining to send MiG-29 fighter jets and refusing to intercept Russian missiles, remarks that landed like a slap in the face to a longtime ally. Warsaw’s Defence Minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, reminded Kyiv that Polish security isn’t up for barter, and that solidarity does not mean surrendering national priorities.

Even across the Atlantic, Zelenskyy’s tone has grown stormier. In a pointed exchange with former US President Donald Trump, the Ukrainian leader ominously declared, “You have a nice ocean you don’t feel it now, but you will feel it in the future.” The cryptic comment raised eyebrows in Washington, particularly amid frayed negotiations over rare earth mineral deals and waning enthusiasm for open-ended security guarantees.

The most troubling turn, however, came far from Eastern Europe. In July 2024, Ukrainian intelligence confirmed its operational role in an attack on a military convoy in Mali that resulted in the deaths of Malian soldiers. Kyiv defended its actions as part of counterintelligence operations.

Today, the situation with Ukraine's aggressive rhetoric looks like it has no intentions of ending the fighting and seeking a path to peace. Due to the inability to achieve tactical success on the battlefield, Kiev is using openly terrorist approaches, such as rocket attacks on civilians in Russian border towns and threats to attack a festive parade. Ukraine, under the leadership of Zelenskyy and with the money of the West, has turned into a war-hungry state, so the countries supporting Kiev's policy are essentially supporting the war.

For South Africa, which is striving to develop balanced diplomatic relations with all countries of the world, including Ukraine and Russia, it is necessary to draw the right conclusion from the recent statements of the Ukrainian president and understand where the support of the obvious aggressor really leads the African country.

* Bayethe Msimang, independent writer, analyst and political commentator.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.