Islamabad/Istanbul – Four weeks ago, with
its most important festival coming up and millions of people
facing starvation as economic activity dwindled, Pakistan lifted
a two-month-long coronavirus lockdown.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has said despite rising infections
and deaths, the country would need to learn to "live with" the
virus to avert pushing tens of millions living on daily wages
into destitution.
Now, a Reuters review of government data shows over 20,000
cases of the virus were identified in the three weeks before the
lockdown was lifted, and more than double that figure were
identified in the three weeks since.
To be sure, testing rates have also increased. But of those
tested, the daily average of positive results climbed from on
average 11.5% in the three weeks before the lockdown was lifted,
to 15.4% on average in the subsequent three weeks. The ratio is
around 23% this week, according to the data.
Pakistan has officially identified over 80,000 cases of
Covid-19, with 1,770 confirmed deaths.
"Those numbers are concerning since they do suggest there
may still be widespread transmission in certain parts of the
country," said Claire Standley, assistant research professor at
the Department of International Health at Georgetown University.
Experts say measures that could curb cases – like limits on
religious gatherings and crowded shopping areas and emphasising
social distancing – should be reinstated and some doctors are
raising the alarm.
According to a letter seen by Reuters, a committee of
experts backed by the local health department in Pakistan's most
populous province, Punjab, told the provincial government the
lockdown needed to continue.
The letter said random testing
suggested more than 670,000 people in the provincial capital
Lahore had likely contracted the virus, many of them
asymptomatic.
The Punjab Health Minister Yasmeen Rashid said the letter
had not been disregarded, but set aside in light of a Supreme
Court decision that lockdowns should be lifted.
Most hospitals in Lahore are now full and are sending cases
to Mayo Hospital, a public facility with more than 400 beds
dedicated to Covid-19 cases, said Salman Kazmi, general
secretary of the Young Doctor’s Association, who is treating
coronavirus patients there.
Asad Aslam, the CEO of Mayo, however, disputed claims that
Lahore hospitals were saturated. "We can handle further burden
of patients."
Pakistan lifted its lockdown on May 9, about two weeks
before the Eid al-Fitr festival that marks the end of the
Islamic holy month of Ramadaan and is celebrated with family
gatherings and feasting. Transport and most businesses have
reopened but cinemas, theatres and schools remain closed.
There has been growing debate among experts globally on
whether populous developing nations can afford comprehensive
social distancing measures to contain the coronavirus while
avoiding economic ruin.
Some officials have suggested "herd immunity" could contain
the virus, a situation where enough people in a population have
developed immunity to an infection to be able to effectively
stop that disease from spreading.
However, the World Health
Organisation has warned countries that have "lax measures" in
place against counting on herd immunity to halt the spread of
Covid-19.
"The Pakistan government is setting itself up for a huge
gamble but it's also a test case for herd immunity because South
Asia has no other choice," a senior European Union official who
oversees South Asia told Reuters.
Yet even those advocating rolling back strict lockdowns in
developing nations are alarmed at the teeming crowds in
Pakistan's streets, shopping malls and mosques, the ramping up
of domestic flights and the movement of millions of people for
the Eid holiday.
"It's not about this dichotomy between complete lockdown and
fully open," Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, a professor of economics at
Yale University, told Reuters.
He said a smarter strategy would be to allow people out for
core economic and public health activities, rather than a total
relaxation of rules.
"There should still be complete bans on religious gatherings
and social gatherings... those are things for which we need to
see much better leadership," he said.