A recent survey conducted in South Africa's three major metros has indicated that the EFF and Jacob Zuma's MK Party will be big players in the upcoming May 29 elections.
The survey conducted by African Innovation Research South Africa (AIRSA) in Durban, Johannesburg and Cape Town found that both the ruling ANC and official opposition the DA were facing a considerable threat from the EFF and MK, particularly among younger voters and those in KwaZulu-Natal.
A total of 1,030 participants were surveyed, representing a cross-section of the South African population in these metros. It must be noted that the survey was conducted face to face and only in the above three metros and might not be an indication of the overall national voting sentiment.
IOL has commissioned AIRSA to conduct a country-wide survey in each province, the results of which will be made available towards the end of April.
The findings of the survey revealed that Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) emerged as the leading choice among the participants, with approximately 20% of the participants indicating they would vote EFF. This was closely followed by the African National Congress (ANC), with about 18.4% of participants indicating they would be voting for the ruling party, while 17% of participants indicated they would vote MK. The Democratic Alliance (DA) polled at roughly 13.3% of participants.
The survey also delved deeper into the reasons behind these preferences, linking them to various socio-economic factors.
For instance, supporters of the EFF and MK were predominantly younger and from lower-income brackets, reflecting the parties' appeal among those who are disillusioned with the status quo and seeking radical economic changes.
According to Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer and political analyst at the department of history and political studies at Nelson Mandela University, the EFF is led by young people and very active, leading the youth to gravitate towards the party.
"They feel that their voice is more represented than anywhere else," Mtimka said.
"The EFF's radical stance places no sensitivity to the rainbow nation and maybe the youth do not feel that the elite were loyal to what the democratic transition meant as far as creating an inclusive society."
On the other hand, ANC's support base was more varied, spanning multiple age groups and economic statuses.
"The ANC's policy offering is broad enough to accommodate a wide range of interest except that what they have done is to alienate a significant section of voter base structure that dislikes corruption," Mtimka said.
"So if it was not for corruption, the ANC would still be a party of choice for many South Africans across the racial spectrum who actually want an approach to a good politically economic class in the country," he said.
Supporters of the DA were generally found among the middle to upper economic classes and represented a demographic that favours policies promoting economic stability and growth.
"I don't think the upper class is going to be attracted to the DA in a coherent way," Mtimka told IOL.
"The DA is going to alienate the black middle class and black entrepreneurial class because they go against the very same policies that created that class such as affirmative action on black economic empowerment.
"So there is no way the DA can attract that particular class of the society because their policies are against them.
"I think that class may find the politics of the ANC and the newcomers a lot more appealing than the DA. But I think the DA represents an important constituency," Mtimka said.
IOL