“We actually talked about it yesterday morning,” Lions assistant coach Jaque Fourie said, thinking back.
“You actually have to finish seventh … It is probably two five-pointers, or five and four points, to be realistic.”
That is the monumental effort that will be required by the Lions if they wish to see their dream to qualify for the Champions Cup next season become reality.
Currently in 10th on 44 points, and with two games remaining in the regular season, the Joburgers will need to be at their very best and rely on a fair bit of luck, too, if they are to achieve that standing.
The tension is rising... 🥵
— Vodacom United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial_RSA) May 12, 2024
Who's going to secure play-off spots? 👀@Vodacom #URC | #RaceToTheEight pic.twitter.com/aQBUFvDORb
The reason is simple ... The Sharks, who cannot buy a win in the United Rugby Championship, have complicated matters by contesting the Challenge Cup final next Friday against Gloucester.
Should they win in London, they will receive automatic qualification to the top-tier European club competition, the Champions Cup, thus knocking out the eighth-placed qualifier in the URC in the process.
There can be no slip-ups from the Lions in the next two games, then, starting with an encounter against log leaders Glasgow Warriors on Saturday (4.05pm kick-off), followed by the Stormers on June 1 in Cape Town.
The Franco Smith-coached Glasgow have been inspired this season, and beating them will take some doing by a Lions team that have been inconsistent at the best of times.
Glasgow are the second-best attacking team in the URC. No other side has made more clean breaks (151) or beaten more defenders (389) than the Scottish outfit.
They have also scored the third-most tries (68) in the competition, and have made the second-most metres (6 947), too.
If that isn’t worrying enough, they are also the second-best defensive team in the tournament. They have a tackle success of 91% – the best in the league – and have won the third-most turnovers (114) of the 16 teams, while successfully defending their ruck 97% of the time.
Against the Bulls this past weekend at Loftus, they should have been dead and buried when they were 37-10 down with 20 minutes to play, but such is their belief and confidence that they challenged their hosts in a 40-34 loss.
Fourie, therefore, insisted there might only be one way to overcome the visitors.
“I know Franco,” Fourie said, “and the way he wants to play.
“If we can force them deeper and deeper (into their own half) and force them out of the way that they want to play, then any team will struggle to play.
“Physically, the first 20, 30 minutes is going to be tough for us, but we have to keep on knocking, keep on working to force them out of their system and then use our opportunities.
“We just need to man up,” he added. “Our defence the last two, three games has been better.
“We are forcing teams into turnovers and we need to use those opportunities now. We need to stay in the system, and the opportunities will come for us to force turnovers – and then we can play.”
Yesterday, it became clear that Richard Kriel would not be playing this weekend as he continues to recuperate from a hamstring injury.
Instead, Rabz Maxwane will run on the wing to partner Edwill van der Merwe and Quan Horn in the back three.
There will also be a slight concern regarding captain Marius Louw, who was in some discomfort due to a knee niggle, the severity of which was unclear.
Should he not be fit to play, Jordan Hendrikse might start the match at inside centre alongside Erich Cronjé.
Lions head coach Ivan van Rooyen has a few days to assess the situation before he names his match 23 tomorrow.